Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2007
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Aug 23 2025 22:24:24

ACUS11 KWNS 232224
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 232223=20
COZ000-240000-

Mesoscale Discussion 2007
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0523 PM CDT Sat Aug 23 2025

Areas affected...Front Range of Colorado

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 232223Z - 240000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated large hail (1-1.75 inches in diameter) will be
possible the next few hours, but a watch is not anticipated.

DISCUSSION...A couple of supercells have formed along the Front
Range of CO, roughly 25-45 mi west  and southwest of the Denver.=20
Boundary-layer dewpoints in the low 50s have spread into the
foothills with upslope flow, and moderate buoyancy is in place just
east of the high terrain.  Though large-scale forcing for ascent is
weak at best, the northwest flow regime favors at least isolated,
southward-moving supercells through this evening.  Sufficiently long
hodographs and steep midlevel lapse rates will favor the potential
for isolated large hail, potentially in the 1-1.75 inch diameter
range.  Given the isolated storm coverage and the likelihood that
storms will remain tied largely to the east slopes of the higher
terrain, a watch is not anticipated.

...Thompson/Smith.. 08/23/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!8U6WVwcTHRiiLdii-Cw4-ZnIoCeEk0qmFcMWairnWO2CLtvEGLEZ6uDIZKmPeH8QbgY9OtWd3=
5P9RqQsduuchwSxblA$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PUB...BOU...

LAT...LON   39650564 39890546 39910522 39730502 39080485 39080482
            38700493 38660530 39040557 39650564=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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