Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Aug 23 2025 19:57:01

AWUS01 KWNH 231956
FFGMPD
COZ000-NMZ000-240155-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0986
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
356 PM EDT Sat Aug 23 2025

Areas affected...Central and Southern CO...Northern NM

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 231955Z - 240155Z

SUMMARY...Heavy showers and thunderstorms will continue to expand
in coverage over the next few hours. Scattered areas of flash
flooding will be likely which may include some localized burn scar
impacts.

DISCUSSION...The early-afternoon GOES-W IR satellite imagery shows
broken areas of heavy showers and thunderstorms impacting portions
of central and southern CO on down into northern NM. Additional
expansion of convection is expected over the next few hours as
diurnal heating/instability coupled with very favorable orographic
ascent/terrain-induced circulations continues to support vertical
updrafts for convective initiation and sustenance.

MLCAPE values over northern NM and southern CO are locally over
1000+ J/kg and the region is quite moist with PW anomalies of 1.5+
standard deviations above normal. Some mid to high-level monsoonal
moisture wrapping around the northeast flank of the Four Corners
subtropical ridge is contributing to this more anomalous moisture
profile.

The latest hires guidance strongly suggests that some of the
heaviest rainfall this afternoon will tend to be over the Sangre
De Cristo Range where some spotty 2 to 4 inch rainfall totals will
be possible. Both the 12Z HREF and 06Z REFS guidance support these
amounts. Locally heavy rainfall totals are expected though as far
north as central CO by later this afternoon as diurnal heating,
orographics and even some stronger shear profiles help to support
stronger updrafts and locally heavy rainfall rates which may reach
1.5+ inches/hour.

Given the higher rainfall rates and localized storm potential near
the more orographically favored terrain, there will likely be
scattered areas of flash flooding including potential for burn
scar impacts.

Orrison

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!7f21XVrSoxBvMaDDMJaSrE9OEHsvFlVtoddxZ7FFhHb20NIoniLTJZaFXBtcd0ZDQVAi=
wannQMIr9rc4u3oWCR7OX2k$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...BOU...GJT...PUB...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...KRF...STR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON   39920493 39550433 38830420 37840448 37350425=20
            36750370 35830381 35080455 34590558 34580648=20
            35160711 36220725 37170824 38130837 39220763=20
            39860642=20

=3D =3D =3D
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