Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Aug 23 2025 12:47:51

ACUS01 KWNS 231247
SWODY1
SPC AC 231246

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0746 AM CDT Sat Aug 23 2025

Valid 231300Z - 241200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FRONT
RANGE/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

....SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms are possible near the Colorado/Wyoming Front
Range and central High Plains this afternoon and evening.

....Front Range/Central High Plains...
Multiple subtle upper ridge-peripheral impulses and a belt of
moderately strong northwesterly winds aloft will influence the
region as low-level upslope flow increases late today within the
post-frontal environment. At least widely scattered thunderstorm
development is expected initially over the mountains, with
subsequent intensification as storms develop east-southeastward into
a moderately unstable air mass, with buoyancy maximized
near/immediately east of the urban corridor/I-25. Steep mid-level
lapse rates and 40+ kt effective shear will support the possibility
of isolated supercells capable of large hail and some locally
stronger wind gusts through early evening.

....Midwest/Great Lakes...
A few showers and thunderstorms will likely develop along a cold
front as it moves across the Great Lakes/Midwest this afternoon.
Warm 700mb temperatures in the presence of only low 60s dewpoints
will limit overall buoyancy and updraft strength, likely keeping
severe-storm potential minimal.

...Guyer/Kerr.. 08/23/2025

$$

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