Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Aug 22 2025 15:53:44

AWUS01 KWNH 221553
FFGMPD
SCZ000-FLZ000-GAZ000-222152-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0973
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1153 AM EDT Fri Aug 22 2025

Areas affected...portions of South Carolina, eastern Georgia, and
far northeastern Florida

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 221552Z - 222152Z

Summary...Scattered, slow-moving storms will increase in coverage
through the afternoon, with areas of 2-3 inch/hr rain rates
becoming likely.  Flash flooding is expected, especially in
urban/low-lying areas.

Discussion...Scattered, shallow convection has persisted across
much of central South Carolina this morning downstream of a weak
mid-level trough along the southern Appalachians.  Over the past
hour or so, deeper, more intense convection has materialized
mainly along weak front extending from southern Georgia
east-northeastward near the South Carolina coastline.  The deeper
convection has materialized in a very favorable environment for
heavy rainfall (2-2.3 inch PW values, 1500+ J/kg MLCAPE, weak
steering flow aloft).  Areas of 2-3 inch/hr rain rates have
materialized near the Charleston Metro area (including 0.9 inch in
15 minutes at WFO Charleston and 2.25 inches in 30 minutes at KCHS
recently).

Over time, convection is expected to deepen and expand in coverage
across the discussion area as surface heating promotes continued
destabilization along with convergence along the aforementioned
front.  Heavy rain may also concentrate along any subtle
sea-breeze boundaries that develop along the Georgia and Florida
coastlines.  Additional areas of 2-3 inch/hr rain rates are
expected that should promote inundation especially in
sensitive/urban locales. Convection should also be slow-moving
given the relatively weak kinematics for steering flow aloft.  FFG
thresholds vary across the discussion area and peak at around 3
inches/hr in less-sensitive spots, although these rates could
still be exceeded occasionally given the moisture-rich environment
in place supporting convective activity.  Several instances of
flash flooding are likely in this scenario.

Cook

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!_LxZGx6JC90Ce7XuKT6ir5Rk5UuRYcke3vtuIUfuTIvsZ_ip0pM9QlWoQ2w1Q3gwtA1s=
1pGz8GUa9wNbHm9Vr2OXYQA$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CAE...CHS...FFC...ILM...JAX...TAE...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON   33697952 33017912 32048012 30058119 29668148=20
            30268266 31078390 32068362 33078250 33658108=20
=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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