Subj : OUTLOOK: Nws National Hur
To   : All
From : Mike Powell
Date : Fri Aug 22 2025 10:01:17

ABNT20 KNHC 221144
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Fri Aug 22 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Erin, located over the northwestern Atlantic Ocean.

Near the Leeward Islands (AL90):
Showers and thunderstorms are showing some signs of organization in
association with a tropical wave located about a hundred miles
east-northeast of the northern Leeward Islands.  Environmental
conditions appear conducive for further development of this system,
and a tropical depression or tropical storm is very likely to form
this weekend while it moves northwestward and then northward, in
between the northern Leeward Islands and Bermuda.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

Central Tropical Atlantic (AL99):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located
about midway between Africa and the Windward Islands have become
less organized overnight.  While there is still some chance that a
short-lived tropical depression could form during the next day or
so, the system is expected to move through a less conducive
environment into Saturday.  The wave could reach a slightly more
favorable environment again late this weekend into early next week
as it moves westward at 10 to 15 mph over the central tropical
Atlantic and approaches the Lesser Antilles.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

Central Subtropical Atlantic:
A small area of low pressure located well southwest of the Azores
has weakened overnight, and no development is expected while it
drifts northward.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...near 0 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake
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