Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2001
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Aug 22 2025 04:58:42

ACUS11 KWNS 220458
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 220457=20
SDZ000-220730-

Mesoscale Discussion 2001
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1157 PM CDT Thu Aug 21 2025

Areas affected...portions of central into eastern South Dakota

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 220457Z - 220730Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A few instances of severe hail are possible tonight with
the stronger elevated storms that develop.

DISCUSSION...A few storms have shown some strengthening over the
past couple of hours in eastern SD, with 40-50 dBZ echoes
approaching 50 kft per MRMS mosaic radar data, which is also
suggesting that hail may be approaching 1 inch in diameter.
Furthermore, a mid-level vortmax is ejecting from the northern High
Plains and is rapidly approaching central SD, which will aid in the
initiation of additional storms through tonight. The ambient
environment is characterized by over 3000 J/kg MUCAPE and 40-50 kts
of effective bulk shear (originating from modestly curved
hodographs). As such, any new storms that can develop and intensify
later tonight may become elevated supercells capable of producing
some severe hail. A severe gust or two also cannot be ruled out.
However, the severe threat should be isolated overall, and a WW
issuance is not currently expected.

...Squitieri/Mosier.. 08/22/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!8ebf5AoOF7L7ryjv0fki8Zln_clsvg5JvbqeUhozHUYv-S94-wUmhA2oWgZiF8dBh9X-Imq45=
ifGBEMjcKvF3yMKcxs$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...UNR...

LAT...LON   44219679 43859780 43699891 43820249 43990317 44320357
            44370365 45030358 45310326 45520030 45529953 45499826
            45459759 45109689 44639658 44219679=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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