Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2000
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Aug 22 2025 01:25:10

ACUS11 KWNS 220125
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 220124=20
MNZ000-SDZ000-220300-

Mesoscale Discussion 2000
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0824 PM CDT Thu Aug 21 2025

Areas affected...Parts of eastern South Dakota and southwestern
Minnesota

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 220124Z - 220300Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Locally damaging wind gusts are possible with a
southward-moving cluster of storms.

DISCUSSION...Earlier semi-discrete thunderstorms have evolved
upscale into a small cluster of storms, with an embedded supercell
still evident. These storms are tracking southward along the eastern
periphery of moderate-strong surface-based buoyancy (per modified
00Z ABR sounding). The consolidated/organized cold pool and robust
updrafts (including the embedded supercell) will continue to pose a
risk of locally damaging wind gusts with southward extent. However,
gradually increasing nocturnal stability in the boundary layer and
gust-front parallel deep-layer flow/shear should tend to limit the
potential for forward propagation and the overall coverage of
severe-wind.

...Weinman/Mosier.. 08/22/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!67QhPVNUK6eD5GFyD3viin64t4B4ZV8FG6fUTba4CCLWXxIrJ15-D0yCAMl3stnm7elzYaTGR=
9whqzt7640OPvxMZeE$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MPX...FSD...ABR...

LAT...LON   44249577 43979613 43969682 44139739 44599760 45059749
            45379716 45509650 45439606 45169559 44699557 44249577=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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