Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Aug 21 2025 18:50:26

AWUS01 KWNH 211850
FFGMPD
UTZ000-220049-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0967
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
249 PM EDT Thu Aug 21 2025

Areas affected...southern/central Utah

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 211849Z - 220049Z

Summary...Scattered convection has the potential for brief heavy
rain and an isolated flash flood threat through the afternoon
hours.

Discussion...Radar/satellite imagery indicates scattered
thunderstorm developing along favored ridge lines in south-central
Utah recently.  These storms are in a relatively dry low-level
environment (35-50F surface dewpoint depressions).  Nevertheless,
presentation on radar and mid-level moisture representations via
satellite suggest that the environment may be a bit more
moist/unstable aloft than suggested by mesoanalyses (depicting
0.8-0.9 inch PW and minimal instability).  The observational
trends are also suggestive of brief heavy rainfall potential
across the region, with a quick 0.5 inch of precipitation possible
on an isolated basis with the strongest cells.  These outflow
driven storms will tend to propagate slowly northward over the
course of the afternoon, but may produce heavy rain across
terrain-favored low-lying areas/slot-canyons and burn scars.=20

Isolated instances of flash flooding are possible given the
aforementioned scenario.  This diurnally driven threat should
persist through 01Z/7p MDT.

Cook

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!9UGN-eqjpy1U1dwPJqazbEpL1FEoUe1P6IWfMajXr_oGVyw0RjSGKDlG56Dw17rMuTe7=
jHPZMKEsfdYvPro56FV5t60$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SLC...

ATTN...RFC...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON   39731183 39721085 38841034 37511091 37011238=20
            37421354 38421374 39191288=20

=3D =3D =3D
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