Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1995
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Aug 20 2025 19:51:37

ACUS11 KWNS 201951
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 201950=20
NCZ000-GAZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-202115-

Mesoscale Discussion 1995
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0250 PM CDT Wed Aug 20 2025

Areas affected...northeast Alabama...northwest Georgia...and
portions of southeast Tennessee

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 201950Z - 202115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated severe wind gusts are possible this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...A cluster of storms has developed across southeast
Tennessee. As these storms, and associated outflow, move south, they
will encounter increasing instability with temperatures in the upper
80s to low 90s and dewpoints in the mid 70s yielding 2500 J/kg
MLCAPE. Despite the favorable thermodynamic environment, shear is
quite weak (flow less than 20 knots in the entire troposphere on the
HTX VWP). This weak shear will likely result in mostly unorganized
storms with strong outflow. Stronger cores/water loading will
support the threat for microbursts, particularly where boundary
collisions occur. Expect the greatest severe threat to shift south
through the remainder of the afternoon and into the evening as
outflow continues to progress south.

...Bentley/Gleason.. 08/20/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!6K2SL85V3HDI3TD4RjUzXXcHZ5yMF3GbsJAvg2qhLQ95p8ak08pURBWkIo0zvGrEiqhC0uDSI=
H-6KShCdfwEuueCY98$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...

LAT...LON   34108738 35258617 35718500 35568432 34848410 34008453
            33348479 32868617 33268694 34108738=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH


=3D =3D =3D
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