Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Wed Aug 20 2025 16:57:04 ACUS02 KWNS 201657 SWODY2 SPC AC 201655 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1155 AM CDT Wed Aug 20 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE DAKOTAS INTO MINNESOTA... ....SUMMARY... An isolated severe threat is expected to develop Thursday into Thursday night over parts of the Dakotas into Minnesota, with severe gusts and hail possible. ....Northern Plains into Minnesota... An upper shortwave trough/cyclone will deepen and develop east across the Canadian Prairies on Thursday. This will result in dampening of the upper ridge/height falls across the northern Plains vicinity. Early in the day, a weak shortwave impulse and remnant convection/cloud debris will move across portions of ND/MN. Meanwhile, a cold front will develop east/southeast across the Dakotas into northern MN through early Friday. A corridor of rich boundary layer moisture with dewpoints generally in the mid 60s to near 70 F will be in place ahead of the cold front. However, stronger forcing for ascent will not arrive until later in the evening/overnight. It is unclear how much diurnal convection may develop due to weaker forcing and capping. If a storm can form ahead of the front during the afternoon, a corridor of 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE will be in place amid 30+ kt effective shear. Strong gusts and hail would be possible with cellular activity through early evening. More likely, convection will develop during the evening/nighttime hours across parts of the region. Initial storms may develop in the post-frontal upslope regime across eastern WY/western SD and develop east across SD overnight. It is unclear how intense these initial storms further west will be, and probabilities may need to be expanded westward in subsequent outlooks if confidence increases. Once storms interact with better moisture/instability further east, isolated severe gusts or marginal hail will be possible. ...Leitman.. 08/20/2025 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .