Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1986
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Aug 18 2025 20:22:31

ACUS11 KWNS 182020
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 182020=20
NEZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-182215-

Mesoscale Discussion 1986
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0320 PM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025

Areas affected...Front Range into southeast Wyoming and Nebraska
Panhandle

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 182020Z - 182215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Large hail and severe winds will be possible as storms
gradually intensify and move eastward this afternoon into evening. A
watch may be needed later this afternoon. Convective trends will
need to be monitored.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms are increasing in coverage from the
Palmer Divide into southeast Wyoming. Persistent weak warm advection
has sustained elevated thunderstorms in southwest Nebraska. With
weak mid-level ascent and the slowly building upper ridge, an
increase in storms intensity will likely be gradual over the next
few hours. Steep mid-level lapse rates along with 45 kts of
effective shear were noted on the observed 18Z LBF sounding. As
MLCIN erodes away from the terrain, some storms will
intensify/organized and be capable of severe wind gusts and isolated
large hail.

Guidance continues to suggest that storms will eventually
congeal/cluster by early evening. Where and when this occurs is not
entirely certain. With the persistent elevated convection, there may
be a preference for clustering to occur south of that activity. That
said, a watch is not anticipated in the short term, but one may
become necessary for parts of the central High Plains as confidence
in a greater corridor of severe risk increases later today.

...Wendt/Mosier.. 08/18/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!8ZRf2VZei_m33BKZTvZujn43L3I3hDcz8PyZP-ZnH0e34TJx7s6xxwgBt0QcZ8CBfoeeE4rA7=
PNyYMJUhSAENvMDQNo$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS...

LAT...LON   38830455 39270495 40930488 41760474 42220426 42220417
            42020301 41660266 41170249 39940260 39070273 38540316
            38830455=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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