Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1983
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Aug 18 2025 16:11:19

ACUS11 KWNS 181611
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 181610=20
ILZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-181745-

Mesoscale Discussion 1983
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1110 AM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025

Areas affected...northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 181610Z - 181745Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...The damaging wind threat will increase across northern
Illinois and southern Wisconsin this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...An outflow boundary from overnight storms continues to
move east across southern Wisconsin, far eastern Iowa, and
northwestern Illinois. Storms have started to strengthen along this
boundary as the boundary layer destabilizes. SPC mesoanalysis
indicates some weak inhibition remains ahead of storms, but is
mostly eroded farther east across southern Wisconsin and northern
Illinois where temperatures have warmed into the low to mid 80s.
Therefore, expect additional strengthening of the updrafts as this
line moves east. Around 35 knots of effective shear (per MKX VWP)
should be sufficient to sustain some damaging wind threat from these
storms as they move east. A severe thunderstorm watch may need to be
issued by early afternoon if storm intensity/coverage increases as
anticipated.

...Bentley/Mosier.. 08/18/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!87Rfok8JPCf_J6YGw7i_wB4JDmdY8U3hQRzRGeRodRr-J8rJTwJi5ArPQFMR6ARnhmYkpQFJR=
glIhRDeGu-s19ds7go$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN...

LAT...LON   41099073 41539031 42179019 42819014 43329016 43518894
            43278777 42608770 42138757 41648753 40988759 40818877
            40918984 41109050 41099073=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH


=3D =3D =3D
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