Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1979
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Aug 17 2025 22:29:06

ACUS11 KWNS 172228
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 172228=20
NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-DCZ000-VAZ000-172330-

Mesoscale Discussion 1979
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0528 PM CDT Sun Aug 17 2025

Areas affected...portions of the northeast into the Mid Atlantic.

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 172228Z - 172330Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Several clusters of strong storms will pose a risk for
isolated damaging gusts this evening.

DISCUSSION...Across portions of the Northeast and Mid Atlantic,
several clusters of more intense afternoon convection have gradually
evolved ahead of a cold front. A very moist air mass (dewpoints in
the low to mid 70s F) is in place with strong diurnal heating.
Despite poor mid-level lapse rates, this is supporting 1000-2000
J/kg of MLCAPE. With the environment supportive of strong updrafts
with near 2 inch PWAT content, isolated damaging gusts (peaking
40-50 kt) are possible through the next couple of hours with these
storm clusters.=20

While the background vertical shear is not overly strong, slight
enhancement of 3-6 km flow to near 30 kt has been noted from the LWX
and OKX VADs. This could support some loose storm organization, and
locally greater damaging gust potential with the  more linear
clusters, as has been noted upstream of DC and Baltimore Metros.
These storm clusters will continue southeast at 20-25 kt over
populated areas of the I-95 corridor from Long Island southward
through the next 1-2 hours. Widespread severe weather is not
anticipated, but isolated strong gusts and tree damage remain
possible.

...Lyons/Smith.. 08/17/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!5O2vBfVcOK6800vjUqXQeHG8RYt9GnigFDDO4y5yvDnaOjuWjH15E8Q8rZroE2v9RRfjHKXOm=
ux02RdhY2jJrBug73c$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...

LAT...LON   38767829 39337743 40297649 40817448 40847384 40667365
            40407397 39667429 39057478 38707525 38507564 38527671
            38537797 38767829=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH


=3D =3D =3D
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