Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1978
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Aug 17 2025 22:25:43

ACUS11 KWNS 172225
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 172225=20
MTZ000-WYZ000-IDZ000-180030-

Mesoscale Discussion 1978
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0525 PM CDT Sun Aug 17 2025

Areas affected...portions of eastern Idaho and southwest into
central Montana

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 172225Z - 180030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms capable of producing strong gusty winds will
continue to be possible through the evening. A watch is not
expected.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms will continue to develop across the
region this afternoon in response to increasing large-scale ascent
ahead of modest short-wave trough moving through the broader
westerlies.=20

The area is only being glanced by the stronger flow aloft keeping
effective-layer shear modest (20-30 knots). Additionally, meager
mid-level lapse rates and surface dewpoints in the 50Fs has resulted
in only about 500-1000 J/kg of MUCAPE at best. However, steep
low-level lapse rates may support a dry downburst or two capable of
producing gusty outflows.=20

A watch is currently not expected.

...Marsh/Smith.. 08/17/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!8z927BSfhgGMjS-V8mSo-mpbrsjAedZKxrI3_CReTXTx4IbYhwx5BTxxn58MLp7B1bXYBfExf=
t-xU7nkdtF-7T0IO_A$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BYZ...RIW...TFX...PIH...MSO...

LAT...LON   44661413 45821326 47161129 47470963 46630863 45410870
            45320976 44821095 44281176 43941260 43821345 43941413
            44661413=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
 * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

.