Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1976
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Aug 17 2025 19:58:44

ACUS11 KWNS 171958
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 171957=20
NEZ000-SDZ000-172130-

Mesoscale Discussion 1976
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0257 PM CDT Sun Aug 17 2025

Areas affected...southwest SD and northwest NE

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 171957Z - 172130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A localized large hail/severe gust threat should be
confined to the southern Black Hills over the next couple hours,
with greater coverage potentially developing into northwest Nebraska
towards early evening.

DISCUSSION...A nearly-stationary supercell has developed over the
southern Black Hills with a weaker discrete cell to its north. The
18Z UNR sounding and recent VWP data sampled weak lower-level flow.
Moderate speed shear in the upper portion of the buoyancy profile
along with a 700-500 mb lapse rate of 7.5 to 8.0 C/km will remain
supportive of mid-level updraft rotation and a large hail threat.
Near-term guidance suggests this activity should eventually decay in
place, before additional storm development occurs to its
south/southeast into early evening. Initial high-based Cu has
recently formed across the western NE Panhandle and may be the
precursor to a separate multicell cluster in a few hours.

...Grams/Mosier.. 08/17/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!-nKeJbZY-KFgDOX92adseg39vhIShWLc-vQcZ9RQt3GsXbjiyT0E1nesNAGW_DBDpb2bh_Vwg=
uYtisIXfgYM8rHk_LU$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...CYS...

LAT...LON   43960356 43850346 43700298 43860250 43760210 43120127
            42360130 42160231 42400311 43000358 43830387 43960356=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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