Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1975
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Aug 17 2025 19:28:19

ACUS11 KWNS 171926
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 171925=20
NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-DCZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-172130-

Mesoscale Discussion 1975
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0225 PM CDT Sun Aug 17 2025

Areas affected...parts of the Mid-Atlantic States

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 171925Z - 172130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Sporadic damaging winds from strong to marginally severe
gusts should persist in late afternoon to early evening.

DISCUSSION...Near-term damaging wind threat is focused along a short
west/east-oriented multicell cluster progressing south-southeast
near the PA/MD/WV border area. Reported tree damage with the cluster
has been aided by a belt of moderate mid-level northwesterlies well
sampled by the PBZ VWP. Surface temperatures are quite warm ahead of
the cluster. This will support continued strong gusts even as
convection spreads south of the relative peak in MLCAPE across
southwest PA earlier.=20

Farther east in south-central to southeast PA, lower-topped discrete
cells are ongoing. Weaker and a more west-northwesterly component to
mid-level flow per the CCX VWP suggests this activity may struggle
to organize. Still, with low to mid 90s surface temperatures common
over the Piedmont to Coastal Plain, potential will exist for a few
microbursts and a localized damaging wind threat as this activity
spreads east-southeast through early evening.

...Grams/Mosier.. 08/17/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!96PNspZ0Ohy0fgF_fm8xxVupHyB5r9JKskRjejIC1n9_ayuC2SOiljOrVNrLtEVdCxFaS8r5O=
Om-toTRCGsC3iMfDj8$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PHI...CTP...LWX...PBZ...RLX...

LAT...LON   39667987 39637905 39787824 40397742 40647661 40657545
            40467477 39937464 39627482 39147547 38987593 38707715
            38597816 38517902 38787979 39118010 39667987=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH


=3D =3D =3D
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