Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1974
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Aug 17 2025 17:42:13

ACUS11 KWNS 171742
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 171741=20
MEZ000-NHZ000-VTZ000-171945-

Mesoscale Discussion 1974
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1241 PM CDT Sun Aug 17 2025

Areas affected...southern Vermont...southern and central New
Hampshire...and southern Maine

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 171741Z - 171945Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated strong to severe storms are possible this
afternoon.

DISCUSSION...A strong cold front is moving south across northern
Vermont, New Hampshire and Maine with temperatures in the upper 50s
in its wake. Strong heating is occurring ahead of this cold front
with temperatures in the upper 80s and dewpoints in the 60s across
southern New Hampshire and southern Maine. Taller cumulus have
started to develop along the front as it crosses the White
Mountains. Within the next 1 to 2 hours, expect storms to develop
along the front as it moves into the hot airmass east of the
terrain. Cooling temperatures aloft and strengthening mid-level flow
will provide an environment favorable for a few strong to severe
storms this afternoon before the front moves offshore. Overall, the
limited instability and relatively confined threat area near the
coast should limit the need for a severe thunderstorm watch.

...Bentley/Mosier.. 08/17/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!4Bin0IXEAUTSQqr_cw2YxKtSiReAI8MaYwSRp-qswbmhcZ8rb-33FkoaWvzqUI-PuLjStbzfp=
ixYafirbRb8sfRy9Mg$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BTV...ALY...

LAT...LON   42897294 43227294 43587265 44147208 44507076 44756903
            44406872 43926895 43447001 42977056 42887171 42897294=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH


=3D =3D =3D
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