Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1973
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Aug 17 2025 16:40:43

ACUS11 KWNS 171640
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 171639=20
PAZ000-MDZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-171745-

Mesoscale Discussion 1973
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1139 AM CDT Sun Aug 17 2025

Areas affected...southwest Pennsylvania

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 171639Z - 171745Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A few strong storms are possible across southwest
Pennsylvania through early afternoon.

DISCUSSION...A few storms have developed across southwest
Pennsylvania along a southward moving surface trough. Surface
heating has resulted in some instability, but weak mid-level lapse
rates on the 12Z PIT RAOB are limiting overall buoyancy.
Nonetheless, a few stronger storms along this front could produce
occasional damaging winds (evidenced by a recent 39 knot gust at
KPIT). However, any severe wind threat should be very isolated given
weak shear (19 knots on 12Z PIT RAOB) and the aforementioned
thermodynamic concerns. A severe thunderstorm watch is not
anticipated.

...Bentley/Mosier.. 08/17/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!9Ur-ifd0yBJVMyQNe9-0zhROWRmW83-aQ-nSHaKw_QyCo-iVfw6U5hkyZtqhECGlyefGaj0xZ=
9HpIbkmxqN86Vpdg3k$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CTP...LWX...PBZ...

LAT...LON   40718051 40807882 40547769 40017759 39727823 39697928
            39698019 39868060 40138071 40718051=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH


=3D =3D =3D
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