Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1972
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Aug 17 2025 10:48:41

ACUS11 KWNS 171048
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 171048=20
SDZ000-NDZ000-171215-

Mesoscale Discussion 1972
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0548 AM CDT Sun Aug 17 2025

Areas affected...South-central/southeast ND into northeast SD

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 597...

Valid 171048Z - 171215Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 597
continues.

SUMMARY...Some threat for localized strong to severe gusts may
continue through dawn.

DISCUSSION...A bowing MCS has evolved across south-central ND into
north-central SD. While this MCS appears relatively well organized,
recent observed wind gusts have generally been subsevere,
potentially due to relatively cool/stable near-surface conditions
and the lack of a stronger cold pool. The well defined MCV
associated with this system, favorable downstream buoyancy (with
MUCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg), and a modest southeasterly low-level jet
should help to maintain this MCS as it moves northeastward through
dawn. Strong to locally severe gusts and perhaps isolated hail may
still accompany this MCS, especially where preceding storms get
absorbed into the primary convective line.=20

The need for eventual downstream watch issuance is uncertain, given
the relative lack of severe gusts thus far, but trends will continue
to be monitored for an uptick in severe-wind potential.

...Dean/Hart.. 08/17/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!-Tin67ZRdhOSaEEFm5JOdbfZKfKtdIGTK1kqluJKpj2DLOVUFPeTpu-O-uMtkFTF2dEntY94A=
Uy20vywopvVsIv0ndk$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS...

LAT...LON   46690087 46800119 47080087 47140023 47219933 46959825
            46429759 45969747 44829775 44429819 44209957 45899985
            46310004 46690087=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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