Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1966
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Aug 16 2025 19:35:01

ACUS11 KWNS 161934
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 161934=20
INZ000-ILZ000-WIZ000-162100-

Mesoscale Discussion 1966
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0234 PM CDT Sat Aug 16 2025

Areas affected...southeast Wisconsin...northeast Illinois...and
northwest Indiana

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 596...

Valid 161934Z - 162100Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 596
continues.

SUMMARY...The severe weather threat is increasing through the
afternoon.

DISCUSSION...A cluster of supercells has developed across central
Minnesota. The MKX VWP is sampling around 45 knots of mid-level flow
which is resulting in around 40 knots of effective shear. Shear
decreases rapidly with southern extent to only around 15 to 20 knots
across northern Illinois. Therefore, storms may become less
organized and outflow dominant as they congeal and move south across
northern Illinois. However, greater instability (3000-4000 J/kg
MLCAPE) and near 2 inch PWAT values will support a damaging wind
threat as the storm cluster moves south this afternoon and evening.

...Bentley/Mosier.. 08/16/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!4BGYLx0fXO1fprmO_RtZ23NofSXiYeiSSx0fteE4zepLaYfzCgJWIr89BzlW38Af1sD4Ghzcs=
jU_-B-UurKaWS_V3fs$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...IWX...LOT...MKX...DVN...

LAT...LON   42908961 43088920 43088827 42948766 42628728 42018704
            41668691 41358689 41178707 41188772 41328848 41568885
            42068936 42388951 42908961=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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