Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Aug 16 2025 19:23:08

ACUS03 KWNS 161923
SWODY3
SPC AC 161921

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0221 PM CDT Sat Aug 16 2025

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTHERN
GREAT PLAINS TO THE CORN BELT...

....SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Corn
Belt and northern Great Plains, mainly during the late afternoon and
evening on Monday.

....Corn Belt to the northern Great Plains...
Large-scale pattern will feature retrogression of the mid/upper
anticyclone from the southern Great Plains into the Southwest. An
MCV should amplify as a result of D2 MCS development and act as a
low-amplitude shortwave impulse drifting across the Upper Great
Lakes. Ridging will build north towards the northern High Plains by
early Tuesday. This evolution will yield a generally modest zonal
mid-level flow regime over the North-Central States on Monday.

Extensive but decaying convection should be ongoing at 12Z Monday
from the Lake Superior/Upper MS Valley into IA and perhaps the Lower
MO Valley. Pockets of stronger boundary-layer heating will be
necessary for diurnal intensification with weaker mid-level lapse
rates relative to prior days. Confidence is low in just how unstable
the airmass will be in WI/IL on Monday afternoon. Still, will
maintain a level 1-MRGL with a risk for isolated damaging winds.

Farther west, steep mid-level lapse rates will foster moderate to
large buoyancy from NE into eastern MT/western ND. Guidance has
varying signals for widely scattered convective development, but it
appears most probable over the central High Plains and Black Hills
during the late afternoon and evening. Coverage is more nebulous in
MT/ND as mid/upper ridging gradually builds, but deep-layer shear
will be greater compared to farther south. A broad swath of
low-probability severe remains appropriate with a mix of wind and
hail possible.

...Grams.. 08/16/2025

$$

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