Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Aug 16 2025 17:04:18

AWUS01 KWNH 161703
FFGMPD
SCZ000-FLZ000-GAZ000-162300-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0945
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
102 PM EDT Sat Aug 16 2025

Areas affected...Southern SC...Eastern GA...Northeast FL

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 161702Z - 162300Z

SUMMARY...A gradual increase in showers and thunderstorms can be
expected through this afternoon. Slow cell-motions and high
rainfall rates will pose a threat for isolated areas of flash
flooding, with the more urbanized areas at greatest risk for
impacts.

DISCUSSION...The midday GOES-E visible satellite imagery shows a
small band of showers and thunderstorms settling south across
southern SC which is allowing for an outflow boundary to gradually
approach the SC/GA border. This convection is generally being
driven by nearby proximity of some weak vort energy. Meanwhile,
some subtle sea breeze convergence along the coast from SC down
through eastern GA is also helping to initiate a few areas of
slow-moving convection.

Over the next few hours, strong diurnal heating within a very
moist environment should aid the development and expansion of
clusters of heavy showers and thunderstorms. Already there are
MLCAPE values of 2000 to 3000 J/kg from the SC Lowcountry down
through northeast FL, and with multiple mesoscale boundary
interactions expected this afternoon, there should be some locally
concentrated areas of convection with high rainfall rates.

Some rainfall rates of 2 to 3 inches/hour will be possible with
the stronger storms. The activity should generally be pulse in
nature given the lack of deeper layer shear, but there will be
slow cell-motions and potential for cell-mergers that foster some
rainfall totals of as much as 3 to 5 inches. This is consistent
with a consensus of the recent HRRR solutions along with the
latest HREF and REFS guidance.

Some isolated areas of flash flooding will be possible through the
afternoon hours, and especially with some of the more urbanized
locations.

Orrison

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!9bD8WYUrFX6s_kMlV8hKPqIC3b138GgMmM9j06oLNFFz-jmLR80Oe7VKjEubTq_vDFAM=
mjCheKRII0QWKztz_nm8cmE$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CAE...CHS...FFC...GSP...JAX...TAE...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON   34068205 33658158 33278078 33247985 32727960=20
            32288026 31658086 30678124 29458148 29348207=20
            30028289 31618344 33378305=20

=3D =3D =3D
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