Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1964
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Aug 16 2025 16:58:07

ACUS11 KWNS 161657
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 161656=20
MIZ000-INZ000-WIZ000-ILZ000-161900-

Mesoscale Discussion 1964
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1156 AM CDT Sat Aug 16 2025

Areas affected...southern/southeast Wisconsin and far northern
Illinois

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 161656Z - 161900Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms across southern Wisconsin are being
monitored. A severe thunderstorm watch is possible.

DISCUSSION...The overnight MCS has persisted across Wisconsin this
morning with wind gusts of 30 to 35 knots and isolated tree damage
reported. A slight increase in lightning over the past 30 minutes
suggests this cluster may be trying to re-intensify. However, SPC
mesoanalysis suggests significant inhibition is in place and should
not erode for another 1 to 2 hours. The evolution of these storms
over the next 1 to 2 hours should provide more clarity on the
overall evolution this afternoon. If these elevated storms can
persist as the boundary layer destabilizes to the south and
eventually become surface-based, a forward-propagating MCS capable
of damaging winds may develop and move across northeast Illinois,
southern Lake Michigan, and eventually into southwest Michigan and
northern Indiana. However, if this cluster weakens in the next 1 to
2 hours, the greater severe storm focus may be along the remnant
outflow boundary later this afternoon. This threat may be more
supercellular initially with a threat for hail and wind before
transitioning into a southward moving MCS.

Convective trends will be monitored and if the ongoing storms show
signs of intensifying/becoming surface-based, a watch may be needed
soon.

...Bentley.. 08/16/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!7tVWP78teh6bhR37nBx0jnllMqoaPxJ6YseeRj0DPUOcmb-p_ecDDa0XFWJ8u3GYynH20DWfU=
Hu9g8G7PaGvlSWIolc$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...IWX...GRR...GRB...LOT...MKX...DVN...ARX...

LAT...LON   43869015 44028934 44348846 44488805 44028756 43298677
            42538638 42288630 41868660 41728683 41578732 41618782
            41828864 42148923 42578996 43069033 43869015=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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