Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Aug 16 2025 12:22:32

ACUS01 KWNS 161222
SWODY1
SPC AC 161221

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0721 AM CDT Sat Aug 16 2025

Valid 161300Z - 171200Z

....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT OVER PARTS OF SOUTH DAKOTA...

....SUMMARY...
Scattered strong/severe thunderstorms are possible today into
tonight across parts of the northern Great Plains into Midwest and
Great Lakes region.

....MN/Great Lakes Region...
A long-lived severe MCS that affected parts of SD and southwest MN
overnight has weakened in east-central MN.  These storms will track
eastward this morning into a region of moderate MUCAPE, but slightly
cooler/drier surface air over WI that was affected by one or more
areas of thunderstorms yesterday.  For this reason, these storms are
expected to struggle to organize, with locally gusty winds being the
main concern today.  Refer to MCD #1963 for further short-term
details.

Farther south across parts of IA/IL/IN, an overnight MCS pushed the
effective surface boundary south into northeast MO and central IL.
Strong daytime heating and southerly low-level winds will help the
boundary to retreat back into northern IA/IL by mid-afternoon.  The
corridor along/north of the boundary should provide the greatest
potential for re-development of a few storms later today, with
locally damaging wind gusts possible.  Given the uncertainty of
where the boundary is, and anticipated limited coverage of storms,
will maintain MRGL risk at this time.

....SD and Vicinity...
A well-defined but rather weak shortwave trough is currently over
western CO and will spread into eastern WY/western Dakotas by
evening.  Similar to yesterday, high-based storms will develop ahead
of the approaching trough and intensify as they move eastward into a
progressively more moist/unstable air mass over west-central SD.
Another nocturnal MCS may affect central/eastern SD tonight, with a
risk of damaging wind gusts and some hail.

...Hart/Dean.. 08/16/2025

$$

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