Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Aug 16 2025 12:07:20

AWUS01 KWNH 161207
FFGMPD
WIZ000-MNZ000-IAZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-161805-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0944
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
805 AM EDT Sat Aug 16 2025

Areas affected...Northeast SD...Central/Southern
MN...Western/Central WI

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 161205Z - 161805Z

SUMMARY...A strong MCS will continue to advance off to the east
this morning across the Upper Midwest while fostering heavy
rainfall and at least an isolated threat for mainly urban flash
flooding going through midday.

DISCUSSION...The early morning GOES-E IR satellite imagery shows a
strong cold-topped MCS advancing across eastern SD and much of
central and southern MN. A well-defined MCV is embedded within the
convective mass, and this energy will be advancing east this
morning through portions of eastern MN and into western WI.

A very moist and unstable environment is in place which is being
aided by a 40 kt southwest low-level jet aiming up across
northwest IA and southwest MN. MUCAPE values are on the order of
2000 to 3000 J/kg over southern MN currently, and this is also
situated in close proximity to an area of low pressure and
well-defined frontal zone.

The low-level jet should tend to veer a bit more over the next
several hours, but should maintain a rather strong warm air
advection regime which coupled with the pool of instability should
favor a sustainable and well-organized axis of convection.

PWs are generally near or above 1.75 inches, and this coupled with
the instability should favor rainfall rates capable of reaching 2
inches/hour. The latest hires model guidance including the early
morning WoFS and HRRR solutions suggest downstream rainfall totals
along the path of the MCS reaching 2 to 4 inches. The 90th
percentile of the WoFS suggest some spotty 5 inch totals will be
possible.

These additional rains will be capable of yielding at least an
isolated threat for flash flooding over the next several hours
with the more urbanized locations at greatest risk for impacts.

Orrison

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!-YkmdYBnF0dnXjaGbehXK8JPZ5LUh0QAPE2ig2Z_w4HKWciyUfU7OZKYIv_MYYGKF_rR=
sjMlfZDHKGYTDBaT3cUPXWc$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...ARX...DLH...FGF...FSD...GRB...MKX...MPX...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON   46579428 46419158 45738887 44488841 43568901=20
            43319043 43599255 43999448 44369655 45399735=20
            46379655=20

=3D =3D =3D
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