Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1962
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Aug 16 2025 10:02:02

ACUS11 KWNS 161001
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 161001=20
MNZ000-IAZ000-SDZ000-161130-

Mesoscale Discussion 1962
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0501 AM CDT Sat Aug 16 2025

Areas affected...Extreme eastern SD into southern/central MN

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 594...595...

Valid 161001Z - 161130Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 594, 595
continues.

SUMMARY...A damaging-wind threat will continue through dawn.

DISCUSSION...A small bowing MCS has moved across parts of
central/eastern SD early this morning, producing a swath of 55-70
mph gusts, with localized gusts to near 80 mph. The system has
become somewhat complex, with significant downstream convection
across southwest MN, but very favorable instability (with MUCAPE of
3000-4000 J/kg) may continue to support an organized severe-wind
threat as this MCS moves east-northeastward across southern/central
MN.=20

The strongest recent gusts have been with the northern portion of
the line, and if this trend continues, local expansion of WW 595 may
be needed to encompass the northern extent of the threat. Farther
south, some intensification and reorganization remains possible, as
the primary cold pool and gust front intercept ongoing convection.
Convection within the low-level warm-advection regime ahead of the
main line may also continue to pose a threat of isolated hail and
strong to locally severe gusts as it spreads northeastward.

...Dean/Hart.. 08/16/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!489ltSqNXpdLgaR0J7prs2pldKwVR2ORmMA-N23S6qLQd1KW-LtLYaP44g8VTRGgzFRrSYVei=
Jp20d9amByLnsofpkQ$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MPX...FSD...ABR...

LAT...LON   45169727 45689624 45849490 45749379 45199311 44729292
            43729319 43629427 43539585 43469634 43799625 44069634
            44509660 45169727=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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