Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1961
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Aug 16 2025 07:19:30

ACUS11 KWNS 160719
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 160718=20
MNZ000-IAZ000-SDZ000-160845-

Mesoscale Discussion 1961
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0218 AM CDT Sat Aug 16 2025

Areas affected...Parts of central/eastern SD into southwest MN

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 594...

Valid 160718Z - 160845Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 594
continues.

SUMMARY...A swath of severe gusts is possible overnight.

DISCUSSION...An intensifying storm cluster across south-central SD
recently produced a 79 mph gust in Tripp County, with other measured
gusts 60-70 mph over the last hour. With strong to extreme
downstream instability (MLCAPE of 3000-4000 J/kg) and sufficient
deep-layer shear, this cluster may become further organized and
potentially evolve into a bowing MCS as it tracks from south-central
into eastern SD overnight, to the north of a surface boundary near
the SD/NE border. Recent HRRR/RRFS runs support this scenario.=20

While MLCINH will tend to increase with time and eastward extent,
favorable buoyancy and lapse rates will support potential for a
swath of strong to severe gusts with an organized MCS, potentially
near/above 75 mph on at least a localized basis. Isolated hail will
also be possible with the strongest embedded updrafts, as well as
with any semi-discrete cells that may develop within the low-level
warm-advection zone in advance of the MCS.=20

Given the organization and eastward acceleration of this system,
eventual downstream watch issuance appears increasingly likely.

...Dean/Hart.. 08/16/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!7TuwwHqJVQNBaHXfSTknB8fetXKH3x8DhX6bBsLajJv_c5LPww9wAPr_YL3lDPXu8NgLCEqan=
ZEAuW0shcFMzfxv0hU$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MPX...FSD...ABR...UNR...

LAT...LON   44499964 44919802 45089672 45099576 44269552 43569550
            43369579 43299679 43219800 43169862 43129913 43109984
            43319961 43689943 44009951 44499964=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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