Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Aug 16 2025 07:17:34

ACUS03 KWNS 160715
SWODY3
SPC AC 160714

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0214 AM CDT Sat Aug 16 2025

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY AND SOUTHWESTERN
GREAT LAKES...

....SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms with marginally severe wind gusts and hail
will be possible on Monday from the northern Plains into the
southwestern Great Lakes.

....Northern Plains/Mid Missouri Valley/Southwestern Great Lakes...
A relatively weak mid-level flow pattern will be in place across
much of the north-central states on Monday. Within westerly
mid-level flow, a subtle shortwave trough is forecast to move
eastward across the upper Mississippi Valley, as mid-level heights
rise in the northern Plains. At the surface, a post-frontal airmass
will likely be in place across parts of central and northern
Minnesota extending westward into the eastern Dakotas. On the
southern and western periphery of this airmass, moderate instability
is forecast to develop by afternoon from the western Dakotas into
the mid Missouri Valley and southwestern Great Lakes. Isolated
thunderstorms will be possible Monday afternoon and evening along
this corridor of maximized instability. Although deep-layer shear is
forecast to remain somewhat weak, low to mid-level lapse rates are
forecast to be steep. This thermodynamic environment may support a
marginal threat for severe wind gust and hail.

...Broyles.. 08/16/2025

$$

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