Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1960
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Aug 16 2025 04:23:35

ACUS11 KWNS 160420
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 160420=20
SDZ000-NEZ000-WYZ000-160545-

Mesoscale Discussion 1960
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1120 PM CDT Fri Aug 15 2025

Areas affected...southern South Dakota and northern Nebraska

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 593...

Valid 160420Z - 160545Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 593
continues.

SUMMARY...Damaging thunderstorm wind potential will persist into the
overnight hours. A downstream severe thunderstorm watch will likely
be needed.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms continue to slowly move east this evening
across Severe Thunderstorm Watch 593. The strongest of these storms
have a history of producing winds up to 70 mph.=20

The large-scale environment remains favorable for scattered severe
wind reports into the overnight hour. MUCAPE ahead of the storms
remains in excess of 5000 J/kg, effective-layer shear is around 25
knots across far northern Nebraska to around 50 knots across central
South Dakota, and at least modest large-scale ascent remains atop
the area ahead of a subtle short-wave trough riding along the
periphery of the southern Plains ridge.=20

Current thinking is that there severe potential -- most likely wind
-- will remain at least for the next couple of hours as the
thunderstorms move east. At their current speeds, thunderstorms will
approach the eastern edge of the ongoing severe thunderstorm watch
before the watch expires at 3 AM CT. As such, an additional
downstream watch will likely be needed perhaps as soon as within the
hour.

...Marsh.. 08/16/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!834NTwAreP7jhkhtNBX9g8mxDPf-r5k6tdiusl5wY2gWlGa2M50Bp5qrAw7xhD-ZXLnVfzo-k=
nSUnQxYX0YdOdJW04Q$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...LBF...UNR...CYS...

LAT...LON   42070275 42980279 42990300 43590301 43830268 43860400
            44160408 44140345 44250346 44250358 44600354 44590297
            45020299 45020204 45450199 45470037 44910042 44899967
            44229966 43959932 43699942 43509930 43489952 42989955
            42960018 42060017 42070275=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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