Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1959
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Aug 16 2025 01:59:43

ACUS11 KWNS 160159
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 160159=20
AZZ000-CAZ000-160400-

Mesoscale Discussion 1959
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0859 PM CDT Fri Aug 15 2025

Areas affected...portions of Arizona

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 160159Z - 160400Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated strong, potentially damaging, thunderstorm winds
will be possible this afternoon into the evening. The disorganized
nature of the threat should preclude the need for a watch.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have developed this afternoon across the
higher terrain of Arizona. These storms have developed within an
area being glanced by large-scale ascent associated with a
short-wave trough lifting north from California into Nevada.=20

Strong diurnal heating and modest low-level moisture have
contributed to a strongly unstable environment with MUCAPE up to
3000 J/kg. Although deep-layer shear is quite meager (at or below 20
knots), precipitable water values in excess of 1.25 inches and steep
low-to-mid-level lapse rates have contributed to DCAPE in excess of
1000 J/kg, and approaching 2000 J/kg in some locations.=20

The lack of even modest cloud-layer winds will contribute to
extremely slow storm motions and water-loading of updrafts. When
this is combined with the magnitude of MUCAPE and DCAPE, isolated
damaging downbursts are possible. However, given the disorganized
nature of this potential a watch will likely not be needed.

...Marsh/Guyer.. 08/16/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!7PpEx4uMPDqH8PTQDiIMYVvFvzduob1_9UQ0SRaFGVQ9H50YL6P7PrHvUikBvrEDjixplsPby=
XHLe8UmCWxz-CtJLjY$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR...VEF...

LAT...LON   30910959 30821076 32111257 34061433 34991423 35061309
            34151205 32921098 32090996 31510936 31080925 30910959=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH


=3D =3D =3D
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