Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1958
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Aug 16 2025 00:25:25

ACUS11 KWNS 160025
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 160024=20
WIZ000-MNZ000-160200-

Mesoscale Discussion 1958
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0724 PM CDT Fri Aug 15 2025

Areas affected...portions of eastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 591...

Valid 160024Z - 160200Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 591
continues.

SUMMARY...Ongoing storms have begun to cluster this evening. This
trend is expected to continue, transitioning the primary threat
towards damaging gusts and sporadic hail.

DISCUSSION...Across WW 591, scattered strong to severe thunderstorms
are ongoing and expected to continue. The initially more cellular
storms have gradually coalesced into a more cluster/multicellular
mode over the last 2 hours. With that transition, damaging gusts
appear to be the primary threat as outflow continues to coalesce
along and south of the stalled frontal boundary through eastern MN
and western WI. While strong outflow should be the primary risk
through the remainder of the evening, moderate deep-layer shear and
buoyancy could still support sporadic hail potential with stronger
but more transient updrafts.

Observational and CAM trends suggest these storm will gradually move
east/southeast with some severe risk through this evening. The
southern extent and duration of the severe risk is somewhat
uncertain as a remnant cold pool from a prior cluster is present
near the IA/MN/WI border region. However, the environment should
remain broadly favorable for damaging gusts and occasional hail
focused on the eastern portions of WW591 for a couple more hours.

...Lyons.. 08/16/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!4V8Ms_JQbXxKS3M6zx4iH_PeZ1wHba1SktCZHz0STUXEHarOO6VoyKsAw9KwYP_ngIbwJ58ew=
-w-mPQATK2xE9ZPQAM$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GRB...ARX...MPX...

LAT...LON   45209374 45389289 45069100 44609038 44129020 43759050
            43799130 43919205 44169294 44449338 44719369 45209374=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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