Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1955
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Aug 15 2025 21:59:04

ACUS11 KWNS 152158
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 152158=20
WIZ000-MNZ000-152330-

Mesoscale Discussion 1955
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0458 PM CDT Fri Aug 15 2025

Areas affected...portions of east-central Minnesota into western
Wisconsin

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 152158Z - 152330Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered strong to severe storms, including a few
supercells are possible late this afternoon and evening across
eastern MN and western WI. Damaging gusts and hail are the most
likely hazards.

DISCUSSION...As of 2145 UTC, regional observations showed new
convective development was ongoing along a modifying frontal
boundary across portions of east-central MN. Despite lingering cloud
cover from a cluster of storms farther south over IA, sufficiently
low-level warming has taken place from low-level warm air advection
to allow for scattered thunderstorms in the vicinity of the Twin
Cities Metro. Continued storm development/intensification along and
south of the boundary appears likely this evening with 70s F surface
dewpoints in place. 2000-3000 J/kg of MLCAPE and 35-50 kt of
deep-layer shear should support storm organization with a few
supercells or short-line segments/clusters evolving with time.
Damaging winds are the most likely threat with some potential for
storm clustering. While mid-level lapse rates are not overly steep,
the moderate to large buoyancy and veering wind profiles could
support some hail with any rotating storms.

As storms continue to evolve, some back building along the boundary
may occur into central MN. Additional development may also merge
with the cluster from northern IA into southern MN as indicted by
some CAMs. While exact storm evolution remains somewhat unclear
owing to the cloud cover and influences from the southern cluster,
the overall environment appear supportive of damaging gusts, some
hail and possibly a tornado. Given this, conditions are being
monitored for a possible WW.

...Lyons/Guyer.. 08/15/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!7cUrDrQGskTD07luYEML3zgwGAS32Ig6IxnTKLRLYxehCkJx27b2lOGkB66JUxGUCQMYQvEfe=
tfGFmSiN028BD6NL9g$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...DLH...ARX...MPX...

LAT...LON   43799121 44019409 45029555 45709534 46339200 46319091
            46179000 45958943 45398870 44738871 43988931 43799121=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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