Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1953
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Aug 15 2025 20:35:08

ACUS11 KWNS 152033
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 152032=20
ILZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-152200-

Mesoscale Discussion 1953
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0332 PM CDT Fri Aug 15 2025

Areas affected...central/eastern IA and adjacent WI/IL

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 589...590...

Valid 152032Z - 152200Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 589, 590
continues.

SUMMARY...Sporadic severe wind/hail will remain possible through
early evening as a linear cluster moves east-southeast from
north-central Iowa.

DISCUSSION...A short and generally west-southwest/east-northeast
oriented linear cluster has been progressing east-southeast at
around 35-40 kts. The temperature gradient between the cold pool and
the ambient warm-moist sector downstream has increased to 15-20 F.
Strong/near-severe gusts producing localized tree damage along with
marginally severe hail have been recently reported, and should
continue for at least a few more hours, especially on the
eastward-propagating portion of the cluster. Outflow is largely
ahead of the trailing westward portion, but not strongly surging, so
there is possibility for a bowing segment to surge southeastward.
Ongoing Severe Thunderstorm Watches appear to well handle the
overall threat, but some refinement could be needed based on
convective trends over the next 1-2 hours.

...Grams.. 08/15/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!7AHBXDfMAnWIqWNUoOMjHh15-RJ5e37zriN_m9E7adFmql-mkaKGO8cHrIuF3koDE013PzbPz=
UKurrfLlSA2j_W-0S0$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LOT...MKX...DVN...ARX...DMX...

LAT...LON   43189253 43299205 43349145 43289093 42919027 42468979
            42058958 41668985 41599037 41469079 41659263 41779373
            42209405 42449404 42579312 42659281 43189253=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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