Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1952
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Aug 15 2025 18:41:26

ACUS11 KWNS 151841
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 151841=20
WIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-152015-

Mesoscale Discussion 1952
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0141 PM CDT Fri Aug 15 2025

Areas affected...northern/central IA and adjacent WI/MN/IL

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 589...

Valid 151841Z - 152015Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 589
continues.

SUMMARY...Strong to locally severe wind threat should increase into
late afternoon with an eastward-progressing cluster from
north-central Iowa. An additional Severe Thunderstorm Watch may be
warranted downstream.

DISCUSSION...Despite the presence of a cluster that has accelerated
to around 40-kt easterly movement, surface wind gusts appear to not
even be strong yet, which could be related to the initially elevated
character of the cluster and modest cold pool/warm sector
temperature differences from 10-15 F. MLCIN appears to be finally
minimizing downstream and thus strong to sporadic severe gusts
should develop on approach to peak heating as the cluster spreads
into the northeast IA vicinity. Hail growth will probably remain
limited and generally confined along the trailing west/southwest
flank where mid-level lapse rates remain steep per the 18Z OAX
sounding, but with only 20-kt effective bulk shear at this latitude.

...Grams/Mosier.. 08/15/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!9es5FkGRzQFriC5IvSy7SRS3UqnW5MnZwd4cGuGMrqZ804FeQ-ZsRvlA0Vug2RQtKiRHhXhLS=
7vXjlUtuvzSzOxOU-E$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MKX...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...

LAT...LON   43199405 43499371 43799306 43829090 43329035 42849023
            42359043 42019162 41919345 41859499 41969539 42329556
            43199405=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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