Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Aug 15 2025 17:33:49

AWUS01 KWNH 151733
FFGMPD
LAZ000-152230-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0938
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
132 PM EDT Fri Aug 15 2025

Areas affected...South-Central to Southeast LA

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 151730Z - 152230Z

SUMMARY...Heavy showers and thunderstorms over south-central to
southeast LA may result in at least an isolated threat of flash
flooding going through the afternoon hours. This will include some
urban flash flooding concerns to the New Orleans metropolitan area.

DISCUSSION...Slow-moving showers and thunderstorms with very high
rainfall rates approaching 3 inches/hour will likely continue over
the next few hours across portions of south-central to southeast
LA.

A localized band of stronger low-level convergence combined with
strong instability characterized by MLCAPE values of near 3000
J/kg will support convective sustenance in the near-term with aid
also from localized outflow boundary collisions which will tend to
facilitate new convective development.

The latest hires model guidance, especially led by the RRFS
solutions, suggests some potential for 3 to 5 inch rainfall totals
by early this evening. These high rates and localized storm totals
may impact areas near or into the New Orleans metropolitan area
over the next few hours. Therefore, at least an isolated and
mainly urban flash flood threat will exist as this axis of heavier
showers and thunderstorms continues.

Orrison

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!-bCYGL1cYWvcgZH6eSJjVzPr2MB5ysT6bxXQVeqmSTpGZfZRboQB1UoXrJYGkG_dzN1L=
lQ0lGtc1R3Xe24_1eLSN31s$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...LIX...

ATTN...RFC...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON   30709171 30489015 30088966 29568975 29349039=20
            29769181 30219226=20

=3D =3D =3D
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