Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Aug 15 2025 17:17:04

AWUS01 KWNH 151717
FFGMPD
TXZ000-152315-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0937
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
115 PM EDT Fri Aug 15 2025

Areas affected...Deep South Texas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 151715Z - 152315Z

SUMMARY...Slow-moving and locally very heavy showers and
thunderstorms this afternoon are expected to produce some concerns
for mainly urban flash flooding across far southern TX.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-E visible satellite imagery along
with radar data shows some uptick in shower and thunderstorm
activity across far south TX near the Rio Grande River and around
the Brownsville metropolitan area. This is associated with the
poorly organized tropical disturbance (98L) seen approaching far
northeast MX and south TX.

There is a fair amount of mid-level vort energy associated with
this system, and this coupled with at least some locally focused
low-level moisture convergence and moderate instability should
yield an uptick and expansion of heavy shower and thunderstorm
activity going through the afternoon hours.

MLCAPE values of 1500 to 2500+ J/kg are in place and this coupled
with very high PWs of 2.25 to 2.5 inches should yield at least
some concentrated convective cells with rainfall rates capable of
reaching 2 to 3 inches/hour.

The hires model guidance overall is quite limited with the heavy
rainfall potential across far southern TX, but there have been
some increasingly wetter trends noted with the recent RRFS
guidance, with some potential for locally slow-moving
bands/clusters of convection impacting areas near and west of
Brownsville over the next few hours.

Given this and the recent radar and satellite trends, some spotty
rainfall totals of 3 to 5+ inches will be possible where the more
focused storms set up. While widespread flash flooding is not
expected, there may be localized urban flash flooding impacts.

Orrison

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!4TRPF31fxLUTbLXNVZxHKpjf90EmIZkps6vWGVK8LLJLGTbpksIHZXsyxkH71kqD_v3S=
zS4Xiniosd0osghOmBb3op4$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BRO...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON   27009837 26929771 26799732 26409704 25939706=20
            25779745 25999837 26369892 26739885=20

=3D =3D =3D
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