Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1950
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Aug 15 2025 12:52:34

ACUS11 KWNS 151252
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 151252=20
IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-151415-

Mesoscale Discussion 1950
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0752 AM CDT Fri Aug 15 2025

Areas affected...Parts of northeast NE into extreme northwest IA

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 151252Z - 151415Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A threat for isolated hail and damaging gusts may continue
into mid morning.

DISCUSSION...A strong cell has recently evolved out of a storm
cluster across northeast NE. This storm appears to be associated
with an MCV that emerged out of the central High Plains. Steep lapse
rates were observed on regional 12Z soundings, and this cell could
continue to pose a threat of hail and localized strong gusts in the
short term as it moves east-northeastward within a favorably
unstable environment (with MUCAPE in excess of 2500 J/kg).=20

The longevity of this storm this morning remains uncertain, due to
its evolution into a discrete cell, and a general tendency for
veering and weakening of the low-level jet with time. Recent
HRRR/RRFS guidance suggests that a more organized cluster may
eventually evolve downstream into northern IA in association with
this MCV, though such an evolution may not occur until late morning
or early afternoon, with the aid of diurnal destabilization.

...Dean/Hart.. 08/15/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!6ikhqxM9LmPhWBwMQzBwo5JbdwDvaaufFjoyPQWED1ag6peJpn8uhW2cbHbtIwc-IpsNQSvAG=
n4A8m0uF-pff_kWk-s$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...LBF...

LAT...LON   42079848 42579813 42669619 41989599 41769675 41759818
            42079848=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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