Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Fri Aug 15 2025 12:34:56 ACUS01 KWNS 151234 SWODY1 SPC AC 151233 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0733 AM CDT Fri Aug 15 2025 Valid 151300Z - 161200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT FROM PARTS OF SOUTH DAKOTA INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST... ....SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are likely today and tonight over parts of the northern Plains and Upper Mississippi Valley. ....MN/IA/WI... Latest water vapor loop shows a convectively-aided shortwave trough moving across SD/NE. A cluster of intense thunderstorms has tracked across central/eastern SD overnight producing occasional wind damage (reference MCD #1949). Another small cluster of storms is over northeast NE. Both of these areas of convection are moving into a moist and potentially moderately unstable air mass, although they may take a few hours of heating to intensify further. Despite short-term uncertainty, a consensus of overnight CAM guidance depicts storms intensifying by early afternoon and tracking eastward across parts of MN, northeast IA, and western WI. Locally damaging wind gusts and hail will be possible. Have expanded the SLGT risk area slightly farther south in line with recent model solutions. ....SD/NE this afternoon/tonight... Strong heating and ample mid-level moisture will result in scattered high-based thunderstorm development across eastern WY and western NE/SD by late afternoon. This activity will track east-northeastward through the early evening into a progressively more moist and unstable air mass. The combination of improving thermodynamic environment and an intensifying nocturnal low-level jet will likely aid in thunderstorm intensification through the evening across northern NE and central SD. Damaging winds and hail will be possible. Recent HRRR/RRFS runs suggest an upscale-organizing MCS could occur after midnight, tracking into western MN. Have extended the SLGT westward to account for this scenario. ...Hart/Dean.. 08/15/2025 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .