Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Aug 15 2025 07:12:17

ACUS03 KWNS 150712
SWODY3
SPC AC 150711

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0211 AM CDT Fri Aug 15 2025

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

....SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with potential for isolated severe wind gusts and hail
will be possible on Sunday across parts of the northern Plains and
upper Mississippi Valley.

....Northern Plains/Upper Mississippi Valley...
A subtle mid-level ridge is forecast to move from the upper
Mississippi Valley into the western Great Lakes region on Sunday, as
mid-level flow remains west-southwesterly over the northern Plains.
At the surface, a front is forecast to remain in place from Nebraska
into Iowa. To the north of the boundary, easterly flow is forecast
over much of the northern Plains and upper Mississippi Valley. Near
the front, moderate instability is likely to develop by afternoon,
and localized pockets of strong instability will be possible. As
temperatures peak in the mid to late afternoon, convective
initiation is expected to take place in the vicinity of the front
where low-level convergence will be maximized. Although lapse rates
will be steep, large-scale ascent and deep-layer shear are both
forecast to be relatively weak near the front. For this reason, any
severe threat that develops should remain isolated and marginal.
Hail and isolated severe gusts will be the primary threats.

...Broyles.. 08/15/2025

$$

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