Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1948 To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Fri Aug 15 2025 01:51:46 ACUS11 KWNS 150150 SWOMCD SPC MCD 150149=20 MNZ000-NDZ000-150345- Mesoscale Discussion 1948 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0849 PM CDT Thu Aug 14 2025 Areas affected...parts of northeastern North Dakoa and northwestern Minnesota Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20 Valid 150149Z - 150345Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Isolated strong thunderstorm development is underway, with additional intensification and a few additional developing cells possible through 10-11 PM CDT. Although this activity may pose a risk for severe hail and localized strong surface gusts, it is not clear that a severe weather watch is needed. However, trends are being monitored. DISCUSSION...Stronger forcing for ascent associated with a vigorous short wave trough progressing to the east the Canadian Prairies remains generally well to the north of the international border.=20 However, the latest Rapid Refresh indicates a focused area of difluent and divergent upper flow just ahead of the southern periphery of this feature overspreading the international border vicinity. This, coupled with lift along an eastward advancing cold front, appears to have contributed to sufficient weakening of mid-level inhibition to support a recently developing storm passing to the north/northeast of the Grand Forks ND vicinity. This is occurring on the southern fringe of the stronger westerlies, where deep-layer shear for boundary-layer based thunderstorm development is conducive to supercells, and there does appear a window of opportunity for this convective to acquire inflow of seasonably moist air characterized by large CAPE. For how long remains unclear, as convection may tend to become undercut by the weak cold front and the pre-frontal boundary-layer undergoes diurnal cooling beneath relatively warm mid-levels. Still, at least some further intensification of ongoing convection, with perhaps a couple of additional intensifying cells appears possible into mid/late evening, accompanied by a risk for severe hail and locally strong surface gusts. ...Kerr/Guyer.. 08/15/2025 ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-dwh8m_jgTQOakj_IL4SiVIg45jE8dRKLu8reGZZywBDfaUGimKyVzcq9xoVA9L5-pNk5doiv= fXwzgk6pgCoav9Q7-M$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FGF... LAT...LON 48929488 48339494 46929616 46929783 48129743 48829698 49089649 48929488=20 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .