Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Aug 15 2025 00:36:48

ACUS01 KWNS 150036
SWODY1
SPC AC 150035

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0735 PM CDT Thu Aug 14 2025

Valid 150100Z - 151200Z

....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

....SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms capable of producing large hail and severe wind gusts
may occur tonight across parts of the northern Plains and upper
Mississippi Valley.

....Northern Plains/Upper MS Valley...

Low-amplitude short-wave trough is currently noted across southeast
SK/northeast MT, shifting east in line with latest model guidance.
This feature is forecast to shift across western MB by 15/06z, with
the southern influence of weak height falls expected into the upper
Red River Region later tonight. Scattered thunderstorms have
developed ahead of this feature across southeast MB/northwest ON,
but trailing convection along the front south of the border is
weak/shallow. Even so, with time isolated-scattered thunderstorms
are expected to develop. 00z sounding from ABR exhibited substantial
capping near 800mb, but MLCAPE was appreciable with ~3500 J/kg.
Additionally, 0-6km shear was also strong, and more than adequate
for supercells. Frontal ascent will likely aid convection later this
evening, and earlier thoughts regarding the evolution of severe
remain.

...Darrow.. 08/15/2025

$$

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