Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Aug 15 2025 00:28:57

AWUS01 KWNH 150028
FFGMPD
VAZ000-150327-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0935
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
828 PM EDT Thu Aug 14 2025

Areas affected...southeastern Virginia

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 150027Z - 150327Z

Summary...Flash flooding remains possible for a few more hours,
though an overall downward trend in convective coverage is
expected through 03Z/11p EDT.

Discussion...Flash flood potential continues across southeastern
Virginia.  Scattered thunderstorms continue to migrate very slowly
ahead of a front draped across the area (subjectively analyzed
from near Danville, VA to Salisbury, MD).  Widespread convective
overturning has occurred across North Carolina that should serve
to limit any renewed convective development here.  Some
overturning has occurred near Wakefield and Virginia Beach,
although 80s F surface temps just north of that area (near
Williamsburg and Richmond) was continuing to sustain scattered
thunderstorm activity.  Areas of 1 inch/hr rain rates were still
being observed, which isn't surprising given the 2+ inch PW values
within the pre-convective airmass.  These rates still support
localized flash flood potential - especially in low-lying and
urbanized areas of southeastern VA.

The ongoing flash flood threat should persist for another couple
hours or so.  Widespread convective overturning continues to
exhaust surface-based instability across the region.  Meanwhile,
lack of surface heating and eventual progression of a front
through the region should gradually limit the spatial extent of
opportunity for renewed convection.  Much of the flash flood
threat should end after 04Z/midnight EDT or so.

Cook

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!7-C2NzmM7TLaKRAUgzLcqdmi842Rw-MCr_ucu5-IQbSHgysGXGev2qcXx7NqcTdyleZN=
FXyAqHRQwHoZ0H8uCh3k4tU$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...RHA...NWC...

LAT...LON   37657659 36967546 36557678 36577833 37097851=20
            37597787=20

=3D =3D =3D
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