Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1947
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Aug 14 2025 23:53:16

ACUS11 KWNS 142353
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 142352=20
MNZ000-150145-

Mesoscale Discussion 1947
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0652 PM CDT Thu Aug 14 2025

Areas affected...parts of southwestern Minnesota

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 142352Z - 150145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...An isolated supercell may persist into the 8-9 PM CDT time
frame, before dissipating.

DISCUSSION...Although initially moderate south-southwesterly flow
around 850 mb has weakened/shifted east during the past few hours,
and temperatures further aloft (roughly centered around 700 mb) have
begun to slowly warm, a focused area of low-level convergence and
lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection have contributed to sufficient
lift to maintain isolated supercell development to the
west-northwest through west of Redwood Falls.  This activity has
been slowly propagating south-southeastward along a warm frontal
zone, beneath moderately sheared west-northwesterly deep layer mean
flow on the order of 25 kts, likely aided by updraft inflow of
boundary-layer air characterized by seasonably high moisture content
and sizable CAPE.=20=20

While there has been some recent weakening evident, it may not be
out of the question that activity could undergo re-intensification
during the next hour or so.  Thereafter, though, increasing
inhibition due to the onset of boundary-layer cooling and a bit more
substantive warming aloft are expected suppress convective
development further and lead to a rapid dissipation.

...Kerr/Guyer.. 08/14/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!94hVxvL1dvXDSdn7Jxwj8G0ZN7NrzwZxM9vwThMuH1HsPUmrFmWoweOO5JUnqJX-FHGxWx6a3=
HYawuBucNnLpaMrvUs$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MPX...FSD...

LAT...LON   44479543 44309499 44069520 44079605 44549614 44479543=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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