Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1946
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Aug 14 2025 23:30:16

ACUS11 KWNS 142330
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 142330=20
NEZ000-KSZ000-SDZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-150130-

Mesoscale Discussion 1946
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0630 PM CDT Thu Aug 14 2025

Areas affected...portions of eastern Colorado...Wyoming into western
Nebraska and northwest Kansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 142330Z - 150130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...High-based storms should continue to increase in coverage
this evening. Isolated severe gusts and small hail are possible.

DISCUSSION...As of 2325 UTC, regional radar and satellite imagery
showed scattered, high-based thunderstorms ongoing across portions
of eastern CO and southeastern WY. Storm coverage has slowly
increased this evening following strong diurnal heating and weak
upslope flow across portions of the central High Plains. Surface
observations and regional model soundings show these storms are
developing atop a deeply mixed boundary layer with T/TD spreads near
40 degrees F. A few stronger gusts have already been noted with the
initial convection. While buoyancy is somewhat low (500-1000 J/kg),
the dry low-levels and high cloud bases will continue to support
isolated strong to severe gusts from outflow with this activity as
it moves across central High Plains over the next couple of hours.

With time, these storms should cluster and may gradually encounter
deeper moisture and larger buoyancy farther east, which could
support some risk for damaging gusts and small hail into tonight.
However residual capping, the loss of diurnal heating and lack of
stronger forcing for ascent casts uncertainty on the longevity of
any stronger clusters that emerge. Given this, and the general lack
of broader storm organization owing to modest deep-layer shear,
confidence in a sustained severe risk is low. Conditions will
continue to be monitored, but currently a WW is unlikely.

...Lyons/Guyer.. 08/14/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!8-Q_N6orksqhEU2lsUTQ7MVTpNI-qKYhbr910nB0IvujYW_GhRKb1qH_oVIDlim9W9BWuezKm=
mUrncCeygPcATX_j6o$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...GLD...BOU...CYS...

LAT...LON   40420454 41160468 42890429 43320278 42830075 41610051
            40440088 39270188 38870234 38880353 40420454=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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