Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1945
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Aug 14 2025 19:41:44

ACUS11 KWNS 141941
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 141940=20
WYZ000-COZ000-UTZ000-IDZ000-NVZ000-142215-

Mesoscale Discussion 1945
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0240 PM CDT Thu Aug 14 2025

Areas affected...portions of extreme northeast Nevada into central
and northern Utah...southeastern Idaho...and southwestern into
central Wyoming

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 141940Z - 142215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will pose a risk for strong to potentially
severe wind gusts through the afternoon and early evening hours.

DISCUSSION...High-based thunderstorms are developing atop a dry
boundary layer, where 40-50 T/Td spreads are already in place. RAP
forecast soundings, and the DPG 18Z observed sounding, all depict
inverted-v profiles extending up to 500 mb, with 20-40 kts of
southwesterly flow constrained to the buoyant/cloud-bearing layer.
Given 0-3 km lapse rates already exceeding 9 C/km in spots,
conditions are favorable for fast-moving thunderstorms capable of
producing dry downbursts, with strong erratic wind gusts possible. A
few of these gusts may exceed 50 kts. However, the overall severe
risk should remain widely scattered at best, so a Severe
Thunderstorm Watch issuance is not currently anticipated.

...Squitieri/Mosier.. 08/14/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!8iufuWFmDaM0y7Hn061R1-b29YbSd2vsskVhQbK5OkVud96gFb5vcz7v5wm1AOKmsSPabB4Sh=
0JtpXCQBe0ZkX76ocE$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CYS...RIW...GJT...SLC...PIH...BOI...LKN...

LAT...LON   41061505 42221408 43101190 43390988 42780847 42030786
            41330795 40800836 40350875 39760983 39301126 39071219
            39101288 39331355 39541411 39781450 40131495 41061505=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH


=3D =3D =3D
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