Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1944
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Aug 14 2025 19:38:00

ACUS11 KWNS 141937
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 141937=20
MNZ000-142130-

Mesoscale Discussion 1944
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0237 PM CDT Thu Aug 14 2025

Areas affected...southwest to central MN

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 141937Z - 142130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A marginal severe threat might develop before early
evening within a few cells shifting slowly east from southwest
Minnesota. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance is unlikely.

DISCUSSION...Along the backside of a remnant MCV moving from
south-central to southeast MN, lower-level warm theta-e advection
has persisted across southwest MN. A belt of 40-45 kt
southwesterlies has been consistently sampled by the FSD VWP from
1-3 km and this is expected to gradually shift east into this
evening. RAP-based forecast soundings and observed cloud bases
suggest initial cells are probably rooted around 750 mb along the
differential heating zone west of the MCV cloud shield. Nearly all
guidance has lacked robust convective signal this afternoon, except
for the 12Z HRW-NSSL. It has a low-probability scenario of a
supercell developing within this regime and tracking south-southeast
along the differential heating corridor. The more probable scenario
is for sporadic attempts at transient updraft rotation, capable of
producing marginally severe hail and locally strong gusts. These
threats should remain within a confined corridor at any one time,
but gradually translate east into early evening.

...Grams/Mosier.. 08/14/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!8FptLPtrTERmEUhs41lHtsBKS6xSEg9Q-XIm0WpG5Df2xaxBxemBGCOQAocQx1dvkBMvcCfND=
24WRRZnKekU6yh5j0k$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MPX...FSD...

LAT...LON   45379593 45769549 45779492 45519447 45129408 44699388
            44189377 43739422 43759513 44189589 44759625 45379593=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
 * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

.