Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Aug 14 2025 19:29:09

AWUS01 KWNH 141928
FFGMPD
MDZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-142227-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0934
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
328 PM EDT Thu Aug 14 2025

Areas affected...portions of Maryland and vicinity

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 141927Z - 142227Z

Summary...Isolated instances of flash flooding cannot be ruled out
as thunderstorms merge and produce heavy rainfall over the next
couple hours.

Discussion...Recent radar mosaic imagery depicts expanding
convective coveage across Maryland from near Baltimore southward
along western sides of the Chesapeake Bay to near Waldorf and
Leonardtown.  While initial development has been propagating at
around 10-15 knots, the orientation of cells amid weak low-level
shear should enable a greater frequency of cell mergers over the
next couple hours.  The airmass supporting thunderstorm
development is abundantly moist (2+ inch PW values, 3000 J/kg
SBCAPE), suggesting that local rain rates could reach 2 inches/hr
in a few spots.  This should promote flash flood potential -
especially in urban areas across central/eastern Maryland that
experience heavy rainfall.

The evolving flash flood threat should be relatively brief.  As
storms migrate from north to south, rain cooled air/low-level
stabilization should take hold and result in an eventual decrease
in convective coverage after around 22Z or so.

Cook

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!6MBRT_ll1e9vlawqn4YbrK-IEUBJYQ-VYIrzPiiA8oo3jmi7lJdmtMp_iJCN7phgWfN7=
7m5ZqSm6qSl8Q82TIkaO05Y$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...PHI...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...NWC...

LAT...LON   39697640 39307595 38487582 37957617 38067695=20
            39067718 39667707=20

=3D =3D =3D
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