Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Aug 14 2025 18:40:54

AWUS01 KWNH 141840
FFGMPD
NMZ000-AZZ000-150039-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0933
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
240 PM EDT Thu Aug 14 2025

Areas affected...western New Mexico, eastern Arizona

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 141839Z - 150039Z

Summary...Isolated to scattered thunderstorm activity will expand
in coverage and drift slowly through the afternoon hours.=20
Isolated instances of flash flooding are expected with this
activity.

Discussion...Daytime heating and weak/modest ascent associated
with nearby mid-level vorticity maxima were aiding on a gradual
deepening of convection this afternoon.  So far, the deeper cores
have materialized on an isolated basis near terrain-favored
peaks/ridges across southwestern New Mexico.  Weak southerly flow
aloft has contributed to slow, erratic storm motions so far, and
PW values (ranging from 0.75 in NM to 1.4 in southern AZ) are just
high enough to promote wetting rainfall and a quick burst of
around 0.5 inch rainfall amounts beneath the more dominant
activity.

With continued daytime heating and surface-based destabilization,
the ongoing scenario is expected to evolve slowly, with storms
expected to expand in coverage.  Some of the heavier rainfall
could occur atop burn scars and/or low-lying terrain that could
locally promote excessive runoff and flash flooding. Models
suggest that the flash flood risk should primarily be diurnally
driven, but should also persist beyond 00Z/6p MDT this evening.=20
The heaviest rain rates should occur across portions of Arizona
where higher moisture content is located, although local 1 inch/hr
rain rates could materialize across the entire discussion area
this afternoon.

Cook

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!-YGmfRGNxvHvUiX-DZREdW0C8PK7aACwabYmUjTRcVK6OR6c9jBmz82mwdp6gKo9m6i2=
qotXpCHWP55b8lcmospacNM$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...FGZ...PSR...TWC...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON   36731249 36200907 34520743 32930680 32190705=20
            31510850 31461011 31811123 33481275 35261335=20
=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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