Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Thu Aug 14 2025 18:34:57 AWUS01 KWNH 141834 FFGMPD VAZ000-NCZ000-SCZ000-150030- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0932 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 233 PM EDT Thu Aug 14 2025 Areas affected...SC Pee Dee...Southern and Eastern NC...Southeast VA Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 141833Z - 150030Z SUMMARY...Clusters of heavy showers and thunderstorms will be developing and expanding in coverage going through the afternoon hours. High rainfall rates will pose a threat for scattered areas of flash flooding. DISCUSSION...A well-defined mid-level vort center with a weak surface low and associated trough is seen advancing northeast across central and eastern SC which will be lifting up across southern and eastern NC going through the afternoon hours. This energy will be interacting with increasing boundary layer instability and the pooling of tropical moisture for expanding clusters of heavy showers and thunderstorms. MLCAPE values have already increased to 2000 to 3000 J/kg across eastern NC with the aid of stronger solar insolation and some additional uptick and expansion of this instability is expected over the next couple of hours. PWs are very high from the SC Pee Dee region up through eastern NC with values of 2.25 to 2.5 inches noted. The strong instability and deep moisture parameters are expected to favor showers and thunderstorms with extremely high rainfall rate potential, with some of the stronger convective cells potentially yielding rainfall rates 2 to 4 inches/hour. Some uptick in low-level moisture convergence around the eastern flank of the aforementioned vort/low center will help to also facilitate some of these higher rainfall rates and a general uptick in convective organization by later this afternoon. By early this evening, there will also be some attention focused across southeast VA as a cold front settling southward toward the Hampton Roads/Tidewater region begins to interact with this low to mid-level energy lifting northeast across eastern NC. Stronger low-level convergence and an improvement in the instability profile by this evening will eventually drive an increasing threat of showers and thunderstorms with high rainfall rates. Expect some localized rainfall totals of 3 to 5 inches to be possible given the high rainfall rates, and potential for some spotty cell-training. Much of the hires model CAM guidance suggests southern and eastern NC will be the area of greatest concern through 21Z and 00Z, but portions of southeast VA in this time frame may begin to see the aforementioned uptick in convection that could drive a couple inches of rain, with more potential for heavy rainfall afterwards going well into the evening hours. Scattered areas of flash flooding will be possible which will include some localized urban flooding concerns as well. Orrison ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-r3hLWvM7_EufC2TIGrholpHMsBWgelijqt1V4zV-j2XAu0MhWGq9L2PSfVfiJRmqGJ3= PvXwMw6lOZd6TQZVa90KqxM$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...ILM...MHX...RAH... ATTN...RFC...ALR...RHA...NWC... LAT...LON 37017644 36827582 35817540 35187546 34677613=20 34367732 33607810 33337891 33417949 34097982=20 34527964 35467797 36667711=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .