Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Aug 14 2025 08:29:34

ACUS48 KWNS 140828
SWOD48
SPC AC 140826

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0326 AM CDT Thu Aug 14 2025

Valid 171200Z - 221200Z

....DISCUSSION...
An upper ridge is forecast to build over the Plains and Rockies
through Tuesday/D6, with the upper high retrograding from the
central Plains to the Four Corners. East of the ridge axis,
northwest midlevel flow of 20-30 kt will persist over the upper MS
Valley/Great Lakes, with a large area of moisture and instability
roughly from MN/IA to IL/IN. This pattern should support corridors
of thunderstorms in the low-level warm advection zone, or along the
northern instability gradient through Tuesday/D6. While areas of
strong wind gusts will be possible, the overall severe probably is
less than the 15% threshold over this large zone.

The upper ridge may flatten over the northern Rockies/Plains beyond
D6, with perhaps an eventual northwest flow regime coinciding with
residual instability, supporting at least minimal severe potential
over the northern Plains.

...Jewell.. 08/14/2025

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